Just when the Pentagon dusted off its hands and declared its 90-target bombing run complete, the skies over southern Iran lit up again. It happened early Thursday morning, right as the country prepared to bury the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Mashhad. Explosions tore through Bushehr, Sistan and Baluchestan, Ahvaz, and the strategic port of Chabahar.
But here's the twist. The U.S. military says it didn't do it.
We've entered a messy new phase in the Gulf. For months, the narrative focused on direct, heavy-handed U.S. retaliation against Iranian forces after Tehran allegedly targeted merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump officially blew up the fragile June 17 ceasefire, launching massive waves of airstrikes. Yet, the subsequent, unacknowledged strikes point to a completely different reality. There are other actors in this conflict who aren't bound by Washington's timelines or diplomatic pressure.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia are Done Playing Defense
You don't have to look far to find the most likely culprits. Tehran is already pointing fingers. Iranian lawmaker Esmail Kousari publicly warned the United Arab Emirates that they would "pay the price" for collaborating with the U.S.
While Gulf Arab states haven't officially commented, their silence speaks volumes. This isn't their first rodeo. Earlier in this conflict, which kicked off back on February 28, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE quietly launched independent airstrikes inside Iran. Why? Because Iranian proxies hit their energy infrastructure first.
The strategy from Abu Dhabi and Riyadh is pure deterrence. They know the U.S. political appetite for a prolonged, open-ended war in the Persian Gulf changes by the hour. By launching precision strikes right after a U.S. operation concludes, these regional powers send a clear message to Tehran: If the Americans stop, we won't. They are establishing their own red lines, ensuring Iran can't absorb a U.S. blow and then immediately pivot to bully its neighbors.
The Silent Threat of a Sovereign Israeli Strike
Then there's Israel. The Israeli military hasn't claimed an attack inside Iran since June. They usually don't hide their work for long, but the timing of Thursday's events is highly suspicious.
Right after the mystery bombs dropped, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz didn't mince words. He openly boasted that the military is fully prepared to execute a "blue-white strike" in Iran to remove threats for a third time. Netanyahu also held a late-night call with Trump to get an update on American movements in the Gulf.
Israel views Iran's bid for absolute control over the Strait of Hormuz—and its demands that global shipping vessels pay transit fees to Tehran—as an existential economic threat. If Israel sensed that the U.S. bombing run left key Revolutionary Guard assets or drone facilities intact, they have every reason to finish the job under the cover of general chaos.
The Broken Chessboard of the Strait of Hormuz
The real tragedy here is the complete collapse of the interim peace deal mediated by Qatar and Pakistan. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually frozen. Before this war, a fifth of the world's oil and natural gas flowed through this narrow choke point. Now, oil prices are volatile, and the global energy market is on edge.
The Joint Maritime Information Centre is currently telling commercial ships to take a massive detour through Oman’s territorial waters. It's a risky fix. Just days ago, a similar advisory saw Iran target three cargo ships in retaliation.
Iran's leadership is deeply divided. Hardliners like Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf are acting entirely defiant, publicly warning that "if you strike, you'll get hit." Meanwhile, their forces retaliated for the broader Western attacks by targeting Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Qatar with missiles, sending locals scrambling into bomb shelters.
If you are operating logistics, maritime trade, or managing regional security portfolios, stop waiting for a diplomatic breakthrough. The interim ceasefire is dead. Expect localized, deniable operations to increase. Regional actors are taking security into their own hands, meaning the risk of miscalculation has never been higher. Keep your assets on the southern Omani route, budget for sustained high freight insurance, and prepare for a fractured Middle East where nobody owns the skies.
