American Jewish politics just took a sharp turn that almost nobody saw coming a few years ago. If you still think the American Jewish community is a monolith that marches in lockstep with the Israeli government, a new poll will shatter that illusion. A fresh survey from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research reveals that American Jews now look more favorably upon New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani than Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Let that sink in. Mamdani is an outspoken democratic socialist and a harsh critic of Israeli policy. Netanyahu is the longest-serving prime minister in Israel's history. Yet the data shows a massive realignment in how Jewish Americans see leadership, loyalty, and the future of the Middle East. It's not a subtle shift. It's a widening gulf between the older establishment and a younger, more progressive electorate.
The Raw Data From the Mamdani and Netanyahu Poll
The numbers tell a story of deep polarization. The AP-NORC poll, conducted between June 11 and June 17, 2026, surveyed 1,022 Jewish adults across the country. It found that 44% of American Jews view Mamdani very or somewhat favorably. Meanwhile, only 32% hold a favorable view of Netanyahu.
Look at the negative numbers to see the real damage. A staggering 59% of Jewish respondents view Netanyahu unfavorably. For Mamdani, that negative number sits at 39%.
This isn't just about two politicians. It reflects an entire worldview shifting under our feet. For decades, mainstream American Jewish organizations operated on the assumption that defending Israel's government was a baseline requirement for community leadership. That era is over. Today, a New York City mayor who skipped the annual Israel Day parade and pledged to enforce an International Criminal Court arrest warrant against Netanyahu is outpolling the Israeli prime minister among his own diaspora.
Understanding the Rise of Zohran Mamdani
To understand why these numbers look this way, you have to look at who Zohran Mamdani is and how he won power. He didn't come from the traditional political machine. He built his brand on the left wing of the Democratic party, relying on a coalition of young progressives, working-class tenants, and Arab American and Muslim communities in Queens before winning the mayor's race last year.
His stance on Israel has been unyielding. He refuses to recognize Israel as an explicitly Jewish state. He refuses to travel there. He openly supports Palestinian activism and has advocated for economic divestment.
These positions used to mean instant political death in New York City, which holds the largest Jewish population outside of Israel. When Mamdani ran for mayor, he only captured 26% of the Jewish vote. Yet, nationwide, his favorability among Jewish adults is net-positive. Why? Because the national Jewish population is overwhelmingly Democratic, non-religious, and increasingly fed up with the right-wing direction of Israeli politics. They might not agree with every single thing Mamdani says, but they prefer his brand of progressive politics over Netanyahu's alliance with the American right wing.
The Deepening Discontent With the Gaza War
The numbers regarding the ongoing conflict explain exactly why Netanyahu's popularity has tanked. American Jews are separating their feelings for the state of Israel from their feelings toward its current leadership.
The poll shows that 58% of Jewish adults say Israel is "extremely or very important" to them personally. Another 28% say it's "somewhat important." Only 12% say it doesn't matter to them. The emotional connection to the land and the people remains high.
But look at how they judge the execution of the war. While 73% said Israel's initial response to the October 7, 2023 attacks was justified, only 42% supported the continuation of military operations through the ceasefire late last year.
Even more striking is the response to the word "genocide." The poll asked whether respondents believe Israel has committed genocide in Gaza. While 49% said no, a stunning 30% of American Jews said yes. Another 21% didn't answer. When nearly a third of American Jews believe the Israeli military has committed genocide, Netanyahu has completely lost the battle for hearts and minds in the diaspora.
The Domestic Political Fallout for Democrats and Republicans
This shift shakes up domestic American politics as we move deeper into the 2026 midterm election cycle. For years, Republicans tried to use Israel as a wedge issue to drive Jewish voters away from the Democratic party. They pointed to figures like Mamdani as evidence that Democrats are hostile to Israel.
But the strategy isn't working the way conservatives hoped. The poll found that Donald Trump is deeply unpopular with American Jews, with 70% viewing him unfavorably. Only 29% view him positively.
Jewish voters see Netanyahu as tightly bound to Trump and the American right. Every time Netanyahu clashed with Democratic presidents or embraced conservative firebrands, he alienated the 70% of American Jews who vote Democratic. They see his policies as a reflection of MAGA politics imported into the Middle East.
At the same time, the Democratic party is facing its own internal stress test. The party is split between older pro-Israel moderates and younger critics. Look at Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. He stands out as a counterweight to both Mamdani and Netanyahu. Shapiro, an observant Jew and a staunch supporter of Israel who has nevertheless criticized Netanyahu, holds a 41% favorability rating among Jewish adults, with only 21% viewing him unfavorably. Shapiro's high net-positive rating shows there's still a massive market for a leader who balances traditional Jewish identity with progressive domestic policy.
The Religious Divide Shaping the Numbers
You can't talk about these poll numbers without talking about religious observance. The American Jewish community is splitting along religious lines, and that directly influences political alignments.
The AP-NORC poll reveals a highly secularized sample.
- 34% of respondents say they never attend religious services.
- 18% go less than once a year.
- 16% attend only once or twice a year.
Only 10% of the respondents identified as Orthodox. The rest belong to the non-Orthodox streams: 43% identify as Reform, 23% as Conservative, and 19% say they have no specific denomination.
Orthodox Jews in America have moved steadily to the right over the last two decades. They broadly support Netanyahu, approve of conservative social policies, and vote Republican. But they are a minority. The overwhelming majority of American Jews belong to the Reform or secular camps. For these groups, Judaism is defined by values like tikkun olam—repairing the world—which they translate into civil rights, reproductive freedom, climate action, and immigrant rights. When they look at Netanyahu's government, they see an administration that rejects their religious legitimacy and pursues policies that contradict their core ethical values.
How Campaigns Should Adapt to This Reality
If you're running a political campaign in a district with a significant Jewish population, you can no longer rely on the old playbook. Assuming that an unconditional pro-Israel stance will automatically win over Jewish voters is a tactical error.
First, stop treating the Jewish community as a single voting bloc. You need to segment your messaging based on age and denomination. Younger, secular Jewish voters care deeply about housing affordability, climate change, and healthcare. They want to hear about domestic policy far more than foreign policy.
Second, understand that criticizing the Israeli government is no longer taboo among Jewish voters. In fact, matching the community's frustration with Netanyahu can build trust. You can express support for Jewish safety and self-determination while aggressively condemning the humanitarian crisis in Gaza or the expansion of settlements.
Third, look at the Josh Shapiro model. You don't have to adopt Zohran Mamdani's radical positions to win over progressive Jewish voters. You can maintain a proud, public Jewish identity while championing voting rights, economic justice, and public education. That middle ground is where the largest chunk of the electorate actually lives.
The data shows that the old guard is losing its grip on the narrative. The political divide between Israel and the American diaspora is no longer a prediction for the future. It's the reality of the present.
